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How to Size a Haul Truck Fleet

HOW-TO · AUG 2026 · 3 MIN READ

Fleet sizing is four multiplications and one rounding rule — and operations lose millions annually by fumbling the rounding rule. Here's the clean method, plus the loader-match check most first passes skip.

01Build the cycle time honestly

Cycle = load + haul + dump + return + spot/queue. Example: 3 + 8 + 1 + 5 + 1 = 18 minutes. Haul and return come from the actual profile — distance, grade, and rimpull curves, not hope. Steal times from your fleet-management system if you have one; it doesn't flatter anybody.

02Convert to real productivity

Trucks don't get 60-minute hours. Apply an effective hour (45–52 min is honest): trips/hr = 50 ÷ 18 = 2.78. At 100-ton payload: 278 tph per truck. Payload means measured payload — carryback, poor fill factors, and light material quietly shave 5–10%.

03Divide demand and round UP

Need 1,500 tph: 1,500 ÷ 278 = 5.4 trucks → 6. Always the ceiling, never the nearest: 5 trucks delivers 1,390 tph and a permanent 7% shortfall that shows up as overtime, missed ships, and a very unhappy plant. Fractional trucks don't exist; shortfalls do.

04Check the match factor

MF = (trucks × loader cycle per pass × passes) ÷ truck cycle — or more simply, compare loader capacity to fleet demand. MF near 1.0 balances the system; below ~0.85 the loader starves and waits; above ~1.15 trucks queue and burn idle fuel. If six trucks push MF to 1.3, the answer might be a bigger loader, not more trucks.

05Add availability, then re-round

Mechanical availability of 85–90% means the calculated fleet is the operating fleet, and the owned fleet = operating ÷ availability. Six operating at 88% → 6.8 → 7 owned. Yes, round up again. The seventh truck is cheaper than the down-shift it prevents.

06Sanity-check with cost per ton

Total hourly ownership + operating cost ÷ delivered tph = haul cost per ton. If a design change (shorter ramp, better road, bigger truck) beats adding a unit on $/ton, buy the design change. Fleets are sized in trucks and judged in dollars.

The TrapRounding 5.4 down to 5 'because utilization will improve.' It never improves on schedule, the shortfall compounds daily, and six months later the operation rents truck #6 at spot rates anyway — the most expensive way to buy the answer you already calculated.
Rule of ThumbTrucks = demand ÷ (payload × effective trips/hr), then CEILING — twice: once for the math, once for availability. And keep match factor between 0.9 and 1.1 or you're paying something to wait.

Feel the queueing pain interactively in Grade Runner and the Sim Yard — or have ShotRock run the real analysis with your cycle data.

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